Who is the most dangerous Republican?

Not the polarising Sarah Palin, or the bemused and hyperactive (in politics, love and religion) Newt Gingrich. It's not the name-recognition-challenged Tim Pawlenty, or the erstwhile healthcare reformer Mitt Romney. It is New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: austerity hawk, prosecutor and union foe. Christie was a superstar on the right for demonising public sector workers when Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker was still Milwaukee county executive, and he remains better known than his "badger state" counterpart even after the weeks-long crisis in Madison.

The national debate over taxing, spending and the role of government will drive the 2012 presidential election – and a standard-bearer for austerity like Christie is therefore the most logical Republican nominee. Social issues like gay rights are becoming non-controversial faster than pundits can rewrite their talking points. Earlier this month, a spokesperson for born-again deficit hawk John Boehner said something rather remarkable: he accused President Obama of stoking the culture war for declaring the Defence of Marriage Act unconstitutional: