The unspoken premise of Pawlenty's campaign has been that Romney is simply unacceptable to too many important factions of the Republican Party -- and that once party elites realize this, they'll turn to Pawlenty, who meets the activist base's various litmus tests and is generic enough to be a "safe" general election candidate. Other than that, he really doesn't have much to offer -- no fun, lively or exciting personality or rhetoric, no inspiring life story, no big ideas. He doesn't stand out in a crowd; he blends in.

So yes, it's still early and there's still time for Pawlenty to suddenly catch fire. But he seems to lack the basic ingredients needed to make it happen. Otherwise, he would have found at least some traction earlier this year, when Romney seemed to be flailing. His failure to do so probably helped Romney to right his ship and also may have encouraged Rick Perry -- who, if he runs, will be aiming to fill the same basic role that Pawlenty has been auditioning for -- to reconsider the race.